AgenticFinanceChileUBER Uber Technologies, Inc.
Morning Notes— 2026-04-29
Daily research brief with price action, news, thesis status update, and recommended action.
Rating Action
BUY
1-Day
+0.5%
YTD
-7.5%
Conviction
4.0 / 5.0
Ticker | Rating | Target | Price | Upside | Action |
UBER | BUY | $85 | $74.47 | +14.1% | BUY |
Price Action
1-Day | 1-Week | 1-Month | YTD | Volume |
+0.5% | +1.8% | +2.0% | -7.5% | ~1.1x avg |
UBER at $74.47 — flat to last note (Mar 26 $73.01). Resilient given Brent rallying to $118 (+6% today, highest since Jun 2022) on Trump's naval blockade threat against Iran. Stock holds 31st percentile of 52-wk range ($68.46-$101.99). Pre-market soft (-1.2%) as oil shock intensifies one week before Q1 print (May 6 BMO). Risk-off positioning building into earnings.
News & Events (Last 24 Hours)
- Brent +6% to $118.03; WTI +7% to $106.88 — Trump vows naval blockade until Iran nuclear deal; Hormuz disruption now base case for Street
- Q1 2026 earnings May 6 BMO — Street: GBs $52.8B (+23.4% YoY), EBITDA +29.6% YoY, EPS $0.71 (-14.5% YoY on insurance + AV investment)
- Uber x Expedia: hotel + vacation rental integration launched in-app — 700K+ listings, Uber One members earn rewards (Uber One now 46M, +55% YoY)
- AV strategy doubling down: $300M Lucid investment + $300M+ Nuro commitment + Nvidia alliance targets 100K AVs globally by 2027; 28-city robotaxi target by 2028
- Uber-Waymo dynamic shifting from partnership to coopetition — Waymo expanding direct in DAL/LON/SF while UBER goes own-fleet via Lucid-Nuro SF launch late 2026
- FY26E EPS consensus $3.35 (down from $5.30 FY25) — Street -36.8% reset on insurance + investment cycle largely baked in
- Analyst consensus: 33 covering, avg PT $107.03 (+44% upside vs spot), 'Strong Buy'
Thesis Update
Status | Change | Conviction |
7/8 Pillars On Track / 1 At Risk | Oil/Margin pillar At Risk worsens (Brent $118 vs $103 last note). AV pillar reinforced (Lucid+Nuro+Nvidia ecosystem). Subscription pillar strengthens (Expedia integration drives Uber One stickiness). | 4.0 / 5.0 |
BUY thesis intact but Q1 print is the binary near-term test. Oil shock has materially worsened (Brent $118 vs $103 at last note) — fuel surcharge mechanism + 100% electric AV fleet provide partial hedge but Q1 driver supply/take-rate optics will dominate the tape. Bull case: low EBITDA bar ($2.37-2.47B guide) sets up beat-and-raise; ad ARR $1.5B+ and Uber One 46M provide high-margin offsets. Key watch: gross bookings (consensus $52.8B), Mobility take rate (oil pass-through), and FY26 EBITDA guide reaffirmation. PT $85 maintained — Street avg $107.03 frames upside if Q1 clears.
Action
RECOMMENDATION: BUY At $74.47, stock trades ~22.6x FY26E non-GAAP EPS ($3.30). PT $85 = +14.1% upside; Street avg $107 = +44%. Setup: trim exposure or buy protection into May 6 print given oil overhang + EPS reset risk. Re-add aggressively post-print on (a) GBs >$53B, (b) Q2 EBITDA guide >$2.65B, or (c) Hormuz de-escalation. Avoid pressing longs at current level until oil tape resolves. |
Upcoming Catalysts
Date | Event | Impact |
May 6 | UBER Q1 2026 Earnings (BMO) | Very High |
Ongoing | Iran Hormuz / Trump Blockade Resolution | Very High |
May 7 | Lyft Q1 2026 Earnings (read-through) | Medium |
Jun 18 | FOMC Meeting (oil/inflation pass-through) | Medium |
H2 2026 | Lucid-Nuro Robotaxi SF Launch | High |
Through 2028 | AV City Expansion (28-city target) | High |
Near-term focus is on March FOMC (dovish signals supportive for consumer discretionary) and Q2 AV expansion updates. Q1 2026 earnings (~May 7) will be critical to assess margin investment trajectory.
This note is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Datos Estructurados
Fuente: Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, Damodaran, Company Filings