AgenticFinanceChileUBER Uber Technologies, Inc.
3-Statement Model
Integrated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow projections with 3Y historical + 5Y forecast.
FY2025 Revenue
52,020
FY2025 Net Income
10,050
Revenue CAGR
18.1%
Projection Years
8
UBER — Model Update | Post Q1 2026
Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) | 2026-05-26
Rating: MAINTAIN BUY | Target: $100 | Prior: $85 (+17.6%) | Upside: +41.0% ($70.91) |
Update Trigger & Summary
UBER reported Q1 2026 on 2026-05-06: profitability blowout offsets optical revenue miss. Adj. EBITDA $2.481B (+33% YoY, 4.6% of GBs margin vs 4.4% in Q1 2025) BEAT consensus ~$2.43B by 1.9%. Non-GAAP EPS $0.72 (+44% YoY) BEAT $0.69 by 3.8%. GBs $53.7B (+25% YoY, +21% cc) BEAT both guide ($52.0-53.5B) and consensus ($52.8B). Revenue $13.2B (+14%) missed consensus by ~$90M but ENTIRELY due to business-model reclassification (UK insurance moving from principal to agent) — 9pp headwind on reported growth, no economic impact. Q2 guide aggressively strong: GBs $56.25-57.75B (+18-22% cc), EBITDA $2.70-2.80B (+33-38% YoY), EPS $0.78-0.82 (+31-38% YoY). Stock jumped +8.3% to $79.41 on print but has since given back gains to $70.91 (-10.7%) as broader risk-off and Iran/Hormuz tensions persist. We RAISE FY26E EBITDA +30% ($8.2B→$10.7B), EPS +36% ($2.35→$3.20); REVENUE trimmed -4.7% ($58.8B→$56.0B) on model-change optics. New TP $100 (+$15 vs $85) — MAINTAIN BUY; conviction 4.0→4.5 as oil-shock-driven thesis cuts reverse. Pillar 8 (Near-Term Margin Investment) upgraded from At Risk to On Track; AV (Pillar 2) upgraded to Beating on 10x trip growth + 15-city EOY target.
Q1 2026 Actuals vs. Prior Estimates
Line Item | Q1 2025A | Q1 2026A | YoY | Consensus | Surprise | Notes |
Revenue ($B) | 11.53 | 13.20 | +14.5% | 13.28 | -0.6% | Optical miss — UK insurance reclass -9pp |
Gross Bookings ($B) | 42.82 | 53.70 | +25.4% | 52.80 | +1.7% | +21% cc; beat upper end of guide |
Mobility GBs ($B) | 21.18 | 26.40 | +24.6% | — | — | +20% cc; insurance savings driving |
Delivery GBs ($B) | 20.38 | 26.00 | +27.6% | — | — | +23% cc; food + grocery accelerating |
Mobility Revenue ($B) | 6.47 | 6.80 | +5.1% | ~6.85 | -0.7% | Below 7% expected on reclass |
Delivery Revenue ($B) | 3.78 | 5.07 | +34.1% | 4.89 | +3.7% | Beat; high-margin ads + Uber One |
Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 1,872 | 2,481 | +32.5% | 2,430 | +2.1% | Beat; margin 4.6% (+20bp YoY) |
EBITDA % GBs | 4.4% | 4.6% | +20 bp | 4.6% | 0 bp | Investment-cycle fears unrealized |
GAAP Op. Income ($M) | ~1,170 | 1,900 | +62.4% | ~1,650 | +15.2% | Strong GAAP leverage |
Non-GAAP EPS ($) | 0.50 | 0.72 | +44.0% | 0.69 | +3.8% | Insurance savings + scale leverage |
GAAP EPS ($) | — | 0.13 | — | — | — | Non-cash equity revaluation drags |
FCF ($B) | 2.20 | 2.30 | +4.5% | — | — | Steady FCF compounding |
Platform & KPI Performance — AV Ramping, Subscriptions Compounding
Metric | Q1 2026A | YoY | vs. Prior Read |
Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) | 199M | +17% | BEATING — pillar 1 strengthens |
Total Trips | 3.6B | +20% | BEATING — trips/MAPC +3% YoY |
Uber One Subscribers | 50M | +9% QoQ | BEATING — now ~50% of GBs |
Advertising ARR | $2.0B | +50% | BEATING — beat $1.5B init exit |
AV Mobility Trips | — | +10x YoY | BEATING — major thesis inflection |
Waymo on Uber (weekly rides) | 250K | — | BEATING — partnership scaling |
AV Partner Count | 30+ | — | BEATING — vs 15 at initiation |
AV Cities Target EOY | 15 | — | BEATING — vs 8 in March update |
FCF Conversion | ~93% | — | STRONG — quality of earnings high |
Mobility GB Growth (cc) | +20% | — | STRONG — insurance unit econ aided |
Delivery GB Growth (cc) | +23% | — | STRONG — food + grocery scale |
Fuel Surcharge (US gas) | Active | — | WORKING — proven 2022 mechanism |
EBITDA Margin Bridge: 4.4% → 4.6% of GBs (+20bp YoY)
Driver | Impact (bp) | Commentary |
Q1 2025 EBITDA % GBs | +440 | Baseline |
Insurance savings — US Mobility | +25 | Reform tailwind; lower claims/loss ratio |
Scale leverage — fixed cost absorption | +20 | Engineering + tech costs grow slower than rev |
Mobility take rate stability (oil surcharge) | +15 | Fuel surcharge $0.45-0.55 pass-through to drivers |
Delivery margin expansion | +10 | Ads attach + Uber One mix shift to ~50% |
AV partnership ramp costs | -25 | Waymo/Motional/Lucid investment headwind |
Driver incentives (oil mitigation) | -15 | Selective markets to maintain supply |
Marketing — international growth | -10 | Latam + APAC expansion costs |
Q1 2026 EBITDA % GBs | +460 | Reported 4.6% (+20bp YoY) |
Forward Estimate Revisions
Metric | Old FY26E | New FY26E | Δ FY26E | Old FY27E | New FY27E | Δ FY27E |
Revenue ($M) | 58,783 | 56,000 | -4.7% | 67,000 | 64,000 | -4.5% |
Revenue growth | +13.0% | +7.7%* | — | +14.0% | +14.3% | +30 bp |
Gross Bookings ($B) | 224 | 222 | -0.9% | 262 | 262 | 0% |
GB growth | +15.5% | +14.7% | -80 bp | +17.0% | +18.0% | +100 bp |
Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 8,230 | 10,700 | +30.0% | 11,500 | 13,200 | +14.8% |
EBITDA margin (% rev) | 14.0% | 19.1% | +510 bp | 17.2% | 20.6% | +340 bp |
EBITDA % GBs | 3.7% | 4.8% | +110 bp | 4.4% | 5.0% | +60 bp |
GAAP Op. Income ($M) | 5,800 | 7,800 | +34.5% | 8,400 | 10,000 | +19.0% |
Non-GAAP EPS ($) | 2.35 | 3.20 | +36.2% | 3.40 | 4.20 | +23.5% |
FCF ($M) | 9,400 | 11,000 | +17.0% | 11,800 | 13,500 | +14.4% |
Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,060 | 2,055 | -0.2% | 2,040 | 2,030 | -0.5% |
* Revenue growth reported basis impacted by UK insurance reclassification (-~9pp); underlying organic growth ~+14% on consistent basis.
Key Assumption Changes
- Revenue FY26E: $58.8B → $56.0B (-4.7%) — UK insurance reclass moves ~$3B from gross to net (-9pp YoY optical impact). Underlying organic growth ~+14%, in line with prior expectations.
- Gross Bookings FY26E: $224B → $222B (-0.9%) — Q1 +25% reported / +21% cc tracking ahead; raise Q2-Q4 run rate but trim full-year on macro caution.
- EBITDA margin FY26E (% GBs): 3.7% → 4.8% (+110bp) — Q1 4.6% already at level prior model implied for full year; insurance savings + scale leverage durable.
- EBITDA FY26E: $8.23B → $10.70B (+30%) — Profitability ahead of plan; Q1 + Q2 guide midpoint = $5.23B (49% of FY); back-half acceleration to ~$5.5B implied.
- Non-GAAP EPS FY26E: $2.35 → $3.20 (+36%) — In line with Street consensus $3.35; insurance leverage + AV ramp lower-than-feared.
- AV revenue contribution FY26E: $300M (new line) — 10x trip growth implies meaningful FY26 contribution; Waymo 250K/wk run-rate ~$700M annual gross GBs.
- Equity risk premium: 6.0% → 5.5% (-50bp) — Reverse March 25 oil-shock add as Brent retreats $120→$97 and Hormuz ceasefire framework progresses.
- Risk-free rate: 4.1% (unchanged) — Fed held in March, June cut expected (25bp); 10Y stable.
- WACC: 10.0% → 9.5% (-50bp) — ERP reduction + slightly lower beta as oil-cycle correlation moderates.
- Terminal growth rate: 3.0% (unchanged); exit EV/EBITDA: 20x → 19x (modest derating on AV competitive dynamics with Waymo direct expansion).
- Share count FY26E: 2,060M → 2,055M — Q1 $1.9B buybacks tracking ahead of $20B/4-year auth; conservative on share count given AV M&A optionality.
- Oil/macro scenario: Bull→Base — Brent assumed $85-95 base (was $85-100 with $120 risk); H2 normalization to $75-85 still plausible.
- Conviction: 4.0 → 4.5 — Reverses most of March 25 oil-shock cut as the very fears that drove the cut (margin compression, demand destruction) failed to materialize in Q1.
Valuation Impact
Method | Weight | Prior FV | Updated FV | Change | Notes |
DCF (base case) | 50% | $88 | $103 | +17.0% | Higher EBITDA, lower WACC; TG 3.0% |
EV/EBITDA (18x NTM) | 30% | $72 | $100 | +38.9% | NTM EBITDA $11.5B × 18x; net debt $4.7B |
P/E (30x NTM EPS) | 20% | $66 | $96 | +45.5% | NTM EPS $3.20 × 30x |
Blended TP | 100% | $85 | $100 | +17.6% | Weighted avg, rounded to nearest $5 |
DCF — Bear (GB CAGR 8%, exit 14x) | — | $50 | $60 | +20.0% | Hormuz reclosure + AV competitive disruption |
DCF — Bull (GB CAGR 18%, exit 22x) | — | $110 | $125 | +13.6% | Oil normalizes + AV scale + Ads inflection |
Target Price Bridge: $85 → $100 (+$15, +17.6%)
Factor | Impact ($) | Commentary |
Prior TP (Mar 25 oil-shock update) | 85 | BUY maintained, conviction 4.0 |
Q1 EBITDA beat ($2.48B vs $2.43B) | +2 | 1.9% beat on profitability |
Q1 EPS beat ($0.72 vs $0.69) | +2 | 3.8% beat; insurance + leverage |
FY26E EBITDA raised ($8.2B → $10.7B, +30%) | +9 | Margin expansion durability proven |
AV acceleration (10x trips, 15-city EOY, 30+ partners) | +4 | Pillar 2 upgraded to Beating; conviction 5.0 |
Oil de-escalation (Brent $120 → $97) | +3 | ERP -50bp; WACC 10.0% → 9.5% |
Ads ARR scaling ($1.5B → $2.0B, +33%) | +2 | High-margin vertical compounding |
Uber One 46M → 50M (~50% of GBs) | +1 | Stickier base + cross-sell |
Revenue reclass optics (insurance UK) | -2 | -9pp reported growth; non-economic |
Lower exit multiple (20x → 19x) | -2 | Waymo direct competitive concerns |
AV partnership ramp costs | -2 | Lucid/Nuro/Motional H2 ramp drag |
Updated TP | 100 | MAINTAIN BUY; +41% upside at $70.91; conviction 4.0→4.5 |
Thesis Pillar Status — Post Q1
# | Pillar | Q1 KPI Read | Status | Conviction (Δ) |
1 | Global Mobility Dominance | MAPCs 199M (+17%); Trips 3.6B (+20%) | Beating | 5.0 (—) |
2 | AV Platform Orchestration | AV trips +10x; Waymo 250K/wk; 15-city EOY target | Beating | 5.0 (+0.5) |
3 | Advertising Revenue Engine | ARR $2.0B (+50% YoY) | Beating | 5.0 (—) |
4 | Uber One Membership Flywheel | 50M subs; ~50% of GBs | Beating | 5.0 (—) |
5 | Delivery Margin Expansion | Delivery rev +34%; GBs +23% cc | Beating | 4.5 (+0.5) |
6 | International Growth | Intl GB cc growth continues healthy | On Track | 4.5 (—) |
7 | FCF & Capital Returns | Q1 FCF $2.3B; buybacks $1.9B | Beating | 5.0 (+0.5) |
8 | Near-Term Margin Investment | EBITDA % GBs 4.6% (+20bp YoY); oil fears not realized | On Track | 4.0 (+1.5) |
Overall conviction: 4.5 / 5.0 (from 4.0). 8/8 pillars now On Track or better; 6/8 Beating expectations.
Bottom Line — What Changes & What Doesn't
WHAT CHANGES: (1) Profitability trajectory: FY26E EBITDA $8.2B→$10.7B (+30%); EPS $2.35→$3.20 (+36%). (2) Margin expansion thesis VINDICATED — Q1 4.6% margin already at level prior March model implied for full year. (3) AV pillar acceleration — 10x trip growth, Waymo 250K/wk, 15-city EOY (vs 8 in March update). (4) TP raised $15 to $100; conviction 4.0→4.5. Pillar 8 (Margin Investment) upgraded from At Risk to On Track — the entire rationale for the March oil-shock cut has been disproven by actual operating results. WHAT DOESN'T: (1) Revenue dollars: $56B FY26 (vs prior $58.8B), but it's purely UK insurance reclassification — non-economic. Underlying organic growth ~+14% intact. (2) Long-term margin target unchanged (22%+ EBITDA on revenue). (3) Rating stays BUY — at $70.91, +41% upside is attractive especially with Q1 demonstrating margin floor higher than feared. (4) Oil/geopolitical risk remains a tail concern — Brent $97 still elevated; Hormuz framework deal not finalized. ENTRY POINT: Q1 print was the kind of beat-and-raise that should have driven the stock higher, but it gave back +8.3% post-print gain in subsequent weeks as macro overhang persists. At $70.91, you're paying ~22x FY26E EPS for a business compounding EBITDA at 23%+ with AV optionality embedded. We see this as a buying opportunity ahead of (a) Q2 print Aug 4 (b) potential Investor Day H2 2026 (c) Hormuz framework finalization.
Change Log
Date | Action | Previous | New | Notes |
2026-02-04 | Initiate coverage | N/A | BUY, TP $100 | Eight-pillar thesis; AV optionality |
2026-02-28 | Post Q4 2025 earnings | BUY, TP $100 | BUY, TP $109 (+9%) | Conv 4.2 → 4.6; FY26 rev $61.3B |
2026-03-25 | Mid-quarter (oil shock) | BUY, TP $109 | BUY, TP $85 (-22%) | Conv 4.6 → 4.0; ERP +50bp; FY26 EBITDA $8.2B |
2026-05-26 | Model update post Q1 26 | BUY, TP $85 | BUY, TP $100 (+17.6%) | Conv 4.0 → 4.5; FY26 EBITDA $10.7B (+30%); EPS $3.20 (+36%) |
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Analysis is for educational/illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.
Datos Estructurados
Fuente: Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, Damodaran, Company Filings