AgenticFinanceChilePLTR Palantir Technologies Inc.
3-Statement Model
Integrated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow projections with 3Y historical + 5Y forecast.
FY2025 Revenue
4,475
FY2025 Net Income
1,625
Revenue CAGR
41.8%
Projection Years
8
PLTR — Model Update | Post Q1 2026
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) | 2026-05-26
Rating: MAINTAIN BUY | Target: $210 | Prior: $185 (+13.5%) | Upside: +22.1% ($172) |
Update Trigger & Summary
PLTR reported Q1 2026 on 2026-05-05: a clean BEAT-AND-RAISE that validates the AIP-led commercial flywheel. Revenue $1.62B (+50% YoY) vs. consensus ~$1.55B (+4.5% beat); adj. EPS $0.27 vs. consensus $0.25 (+8% beat). U.S. commercial revenue accelerated to $510M (+125% YoY) — fourth straight quarter of >100% growth — driving total commercial revenue to +73%. Adj. operating margin expanded to 46% (vs. 45% Q4 2025, +500bp YoY). FCF $760M (47% margin). Management raised FY2026 guidance to $7.35-7.40B (from $7.18-7.20B, +2.7% midpoint), U.S. commercial growth to 130% (from 115%), and adj. op income to >$3.0B (from >$2.8B). Stock rallied +12% post-print to recover most of the late-Feb/early-Mar AI-selloff drawdown. We raise FY26E revenue +2.9% ($7.19B→$7.40B), EBITDA +8.0% ($2.45B→$2.64B), EPS +8.8% ($0.91→$0.99). FY27E flows higher: EBITDA +9.2% ($3.63B→$3.96B), EPS +9.4% ($1.39→$1.52). New TP $210 (+13.5%) — MAINTAIN BUY; conviction 3.5→4.0 as commercial inflection durability is no longer a debate. All 5 thesis pillars upgraded; new Pillar 6 (International Commercial) added on early signs of acceleration outside the U.S.
Q1 2026 Actuals vs. Prior Estimates
Line Item | Q1 2025A | Q1 2026A | YoY | Q1 2026E | Surprise | Notes |
Revenue ($M) | 1,084 | 1,623 | +49.7% | 1,550 | +4.7% | Beat driven by U.S. commercial outperformance |
U.S. Commercial ($M) | 227 | 511 | +125% | ~470 | +8.7% | Fourth straight quarter >100% |
U.S. Government ($M) | 373 | 555 | +48.8% | ~525 | +5.7% | TITAN momentum; defense AI budget +30% |
Intl. Commercial ($M) | 207 | 281 | +35.8% | ~280 | +0.4% | Europe accelerating; UK/Germany +50% |
Intl. Government ($M) | 277 | 276 | -0.4% | ~275 | +0.4% | NATO + Ukraine support steady |
Adj. Gross Margin | 82.1% | 83.5% | +140 bp | 82.5% | +100 bp | Mix shift to higher-margin AIP |
Adj. Operating Margin | 41.0% | 46.0% | +500 bp | 44.0% | +200 bp | Operating leverage on flat headcount |
Adj. Operating Income ($M) | 445 | 747 | +67.9% | 682 | +9.5% | Best margin quarter on record |
GAAP Operating Margin | 20.0% | 32.5% | +1,250 bp | 28.0% | +450 bp | Fifth straight quarter GAAP profitable |
Adj. EPS ($) | $0.18 | $0.27 | +50.0% | $0.25 | +8.0% | Beat on revenue + margin + lower share count growth |
Free Cash Flow ($M) | 453 | 760 | +67.8% | 650 | +16.9% | 47% FCF margin; Rule of 96 |
Customer Count | 554 | 1,178 | +112.6% | ~1,100 | +7.1% | Crossed 1,000 in Q4; +178 net adds in Q1 |
Deals >$10M closed | 12 | 24 | +100% | ~18 | +33% | Average deal size expanding |
Segment & KPI Performance — Commercial Flywheel + Government Moat
Metric | Q1 2026A | YoY | vs. Initiation/Prior Read |
U.S. Commercial Revenue | $511M | +125% | BEATING — 4th straight Q >100%; AIP boot camps converting at 2.2x rate |
U.S. Commercial Customers | ~590 | +95% | BEATING — enterprise adoption broadening |
U.S. Government Revenue | $555M | +49% | BEATING — TITAN, NGAD AI awards |
Intl. Commercial Revenue | $281M | +36% | ACCELERATING — Europe inflecting |
Total Commercial (USC+IntlC) | $792M | +73% | BEATING — commercial > 49% of total rev |
Total Customer Count | 1,178 | +113% | BEATING — 178 net adds in Q1 alone |
Deals >$1M closed | 139 | +85% | BEATING — AIP boot camp engine working |
Deals >$10M closed | 24 | +100% | BEATING — top-of-funnel enterprise tier |
RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation) | $5.95B | +62% | BEATING — forward visibility expanding |
Adj. Operating Margin | 46.0% | +500 bp | BEATING — operating leverage structural |
FCF Margin | 47% | +200 bp | BEATING — Rule of 96 (50% growth + 47% FCF) |
Headcount | ~4,200 | +8% | ON TRACK — disciplined hiring; revenue/employee +40% |
Net Dollar Retention | 124% | +400 bp | BEATING — expansion within installed base |
FY2026 Guidance Raise: $7.19B → $7.38B Midpoint (+2.7%)
Metric | Prior Guide (Feb) | New Guide (May) | Change | Implied Growth |
Revenue | $7.18-7.20B | $7.35-7.40B | +$190M midpoint | +64% YoY (was +61%) |
U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth | +115% YoY | +130% YoY | +15 pp | Commercial >50% of total by Q4 |
Adj. Operating Income | >$2.80B | >$3.00B | +$200M | ~41% margin (was 39%) |
Free Cash Flow | >$3.00B | >$3.20B | +$200M | ~43% margin (was 42%) |
Q2 Revenue (guide) | n/a | $1.74-1.76B | — | +58% YoY |
Forward Estimate Revisions
Metric | Old FY26E | New FY26E | Δ FY26E | Old FY27E | New FY27E | Δ FY27E |
Revenue ($M) | 7,190 | 7,400 | +2.9% | 10,070 | 10,500 | +4.3% |
Revenue growth | +60.7% | +65.4% | +470 bp | +40.0% | +41.9% | +190 bp |
U.S. Commercial growth | +115% | +130% | +1,500 bp | +75% | +80% | +500 bp |
Adj. Gross Margin | 82.5% | 83.5% | +100 bp | 83.0% | 84.0% | +100 bp |
Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 2,445 | 2,640 | +8.0% | 3,625 | 3,960 | +9.2% |
Adj. EBITDA margin | 34.0% | 35.7% | +170 bp | 36.0% | 37.7% | +170 bp |
Adj. Operating Income ($M) | 2,890 | 3,090 | +6.9% | 4,330 | 4,720 | +9.0% |
Adj. Operating Margin | 40.2% | 41.8% | +160 bp | 43.0% | 45.0% | +200 bp |
Net Income ($M) | 2,200 | 2,415 | +9.8% | 3,400 | 3,720 | +9.4% |
Adj. EPS ($) | 0.91 | 0.99 | +8.8% | 1.39 | 1.52 | +9.4% |
Free Cash Flow ($M) | 3,400 | 3,580 | +5.3% | 4,800 | 5,150 | +7.3% |
FCF margin | 47.3% | 48.4% | +110 bp | 47.7% | 49.0% | +130 bp |
Rule of 40 score | 108 | 114 | +6 pts | 90 | 91 | +1 pt |
Key Assumption Changes
- Revenue growth FY26E: 60.7% → 65.4% — Matches new guide midpoint ($7.38B); Q1 actual run-rate ($1.62B × 4 = $6.5B) plus seasonal back-half ramp consistent with $7.40B.
- U.S. Commercial growth FY26E: 115% → 130% — Q1 +125% with 4th straight quarter >100%; AIP boot camp pipeline (~200 events booked) underwrites continued momentum into H2.
- Adj. Operating margin FY26E: 40.2% → 41.8% — Q1 hit 46%; operating leverage on flat headcount + AIP gross margin mix lift. Conservative vs. Q1 actual to allow for H2 sales investment.
- FY27E margin trajectory: 43.0% → 45.0% — Faster than prior model as commercial mix accelerates; we now see >50% margin achievable by FY29E vs. prior FY30E.
- FCF margin FY26E: 47.3% → 48.4% — Mgmt guides >$3.2B (43%); we model above given Q1 47% actual + lower cash taxes vs. GAAP income.
- Customer count FY26E: ~1,400 → ~1,650 — Q1 added 178 net new customers; trajectory implies ~1,650 by YE26 (was 1,400).
- Share count FY26E: 2,420M → 2,415M — Marginal moderation as SBC continues to slow (now 13% of revenue, down from 15% FY25, 30% FY22).
- DCF inputs: WACC 17.0% unchanged; terminal growth 3.5% unchanged; exit EV/EBITDA 35x → 38x (modest expansion on durability of Rule-of-40+ profile).
- Probability weighting (Bear 20 / Base 50 / Bull 30) — Bull weight increased from 30% to 35% as upside scenarios more credible post-Q1; Bear unchanged.
- International Commercial inflection: Now modeled as +40% FY26E (was +30%) — Q1 +36% with Germany/UK leading; new pillar tracking this segment.
- Conviction 3.5 → 4.0 — Commercial flywheel durability validated (4 straight Qs >100%); valuation risk remains the primary cap on conviction.
Valuation Impact
Method | Weight | Prior FV | Updated FV | Change | Notes |
DCF (perpetuity, WACC 17%, TG 3.5%) | 40% | $170 | $190 | +11.8% | Higher FCF FY26-27 + faster margin path |
DCF (exit multiple, 38x FY30E EBITDA) | 40% | $195 | $225 | +15.4% | Exit multiple 35x→38x; FY30 EBITDA +12% |
EV/Revenue (61x FY26E) | 20% | $185 | $200 | +8.1% | $7.4B × 61x ÷ 2.42B shares + cash |
Blended TP | 100% | $185 | $210 | +13.5% | Weighted avg, rounded to nearest $5 |
DCF — Bear (5Y CAGR 30%, terminal 38%) | — | $110 | $130 | +18.2% | AI multiple compression + commercial decel |
DCF — Bull (5Y CAGR 45%, terminal 50%) | — | $280 | $310 | +10.7% | AIP becomes enterprise AI standard |
Target Price Bridge: $185 → $210 (+13.5%)
Driver | Impact ($) | Commentary |
Prior TP (Initiation 2026-03-02) | 185 | Baseline blended DCF + EV/Rev |
Higher FY26E revenue (+2.9%) | +8 | Guidance raise + Q1 beat |
Faster margin path (FY26 +170bp, FY27 +200bp) | +10 | Operating leverage on commercial mix |
FCF compounding (+$180M FY26, +$350M FY27) | +5 | Higher cash flow into terminal year |
Exit multiple expansion (35x → 38x) | +4 | Durability of Rule-of-40+ profile |
Time value (FY27 partially in window) | +3 | DCF rolls forward |
Offset: AI-cohort multiple risk | -5 | Discount to peer median compression scenario |
Updated TP | 210 | MAINTAIN BUY; +22% upside at $172 |
Thesis Pillar Status — Post Q1
# | Pillar | KPI | Q1 Read | Status | Conviction |
1 | AIP Platform Dominance | US Commercial growth | +125% YoY (Q1) | BEATING | 4.5 → 4.7 |
2 | Government Moat Expanding | US Gov revenue | $555M (+49%) | BEATING | 4.2 → 4.5 |
3 | Commercial Revenue Inflection | Total commercial growth | +73% YoY | BEATING | 4.0 → 4.5 |
4 | Rule of 40+ Sustainability | Rule of 40 score | Rule of 96 (50%+46%) | BEATING | 4.3 → 4.5 |
5 | FCF Machine with Optionality | FCF margin | 47% ($760M Q1) | ON TRACK | 4.0 → 4.2 |
6 | International Commercial (NEW) | Intl. commercial growth | $281M (+36%) | Strengthening | Initiating @ 3.5 |
Bottom Line — What Changes & What Doesn't
WHAT CHANGES: (1) Estimates UP across the board: FY26E revenue +2.9%, EBITDA +8.0%, EPS +8.8%; FY27E revenue +4.3%, EBITDA +9.2%, EPS +9.4%. (2) TP raised $25 to $210 (+13.5%); conviction 3.5 → 4.0. (3) Commercial flywheel is now de-risked — 4 straight quarters of >100% US commercial growth dispels the 'one-quarter anomaly' bear case. (4) Margin trajectory pulled forward 12 months — 50%+ adj. op margin now achievable by FY29E (was FY30E). (5) New 6th pillar (International Commercial) added on early inflection signal. WHAT DOESN'T: (1) Rating stays BUY — not upgrading to STRONG BUY because valuation remains the binding constraint: at $172 PLTR trades 64x FY26E EV/Revenue and 174x FY26E P/E, leaving little room for any execution miss. (2) Bear case ($130) still meaningful — AI cohort multiple compression remains the dominant downside risk. (3) DCF inputs (WACC 17%, TG 3.5%) unchanged. (4) Stock is up +18% since initiation ($146→$172); upside compressed from +27% to +22% but tilted to the right of the Bull case ($310 at 45% CAGR). ENTRY POINT: Tactical adds on pullbacks below $165 (Q2 print could be choppy on tougher comps); aggressive sizing only below $145 (would re-create initiation entry). Hold core position; AIPCon 5 (Aug 1) is next catalyst — past events drove 5-10% moves.
Change Log
Date | Action | Previous | New | Notes |
2026-03-02 | Initiate coverage | N/A | BUY, TP $185 | Five-pillar thesis; AIP-led commercial inflection |
2026-05-26 | Model update post Q1 26 | BUY, TP $185 | BUY, TP $210 (+13.5%) | Beat-and-raise; conviction 3.5 → 4.0; 6th pillar added |
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Analysis is for educational/illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.
Datos Estructurados
Fuente: Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, Damodaran, Company Filings