AgenticFinanceChileGLOB Globant S.A.
3-Statement Model
Integrated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow projections with 3Y historical + 5Y forecast.
FY2025 Revenue
N/A
FY2025 Net Income
N/A
Revenue CAGR
N/A
Projection Years
8
GLOB — Model Update | Post Q1 2026
Globant S.A. (NYSE: GLOB) | 2026-05-26
Rating: MAINTAIN BUY | Target: $70.00 | Prior: $67.50 (+3.7%) | Upside: +78.8% ($39.16) |
Update Trigger & Summary
Globant reported Q1 2026 on 2026-05-14. Headline beat: revenue $607.1M exceeded the high end of guidance despite -0.7% YoY; Adj EPS $1.50 (flat YoY) printed above midpoint; FCF $36.1M was the first positive Q1 since 2019. AI Pods ARR reached $32.8M with a $352M pipeline — strong leading indicator on the AI-native pivot. Total debt fell $162M YoY ($524M → $362M), $50M was deployed on buybacks in Q1, and a new $125M authorization was approved (~7% of float at current prices). Management maintained FY26 guide (revenue $2.46-2.51B, +0.3-2.2% YoY; Adj op margin 14-15%; Adj EPS $6.10-6.50). We raise FY26E revenue +2.9% on Q1 trajectory and AI Pods ramp, trim FY26E EBITDA margin 50bp on guidance, lower share count -3.5% on buyback, and lift FY27E EBITDA +6.7% as AI mix scales. TP $67.50 → $70.00 (+3.7%) reflecting net-debt reduction and buyback accretion. MAINTAIN BUY; conviction upgrade 3 → 4 — Q1 confirmed the thesis and the stock fell ~22% since initiation ($50.34 → $39.16), expanding the risk/reward despite a new US securities class action overhang covering historical disclosures (Feb-2024 to Aug-2025 class period).
Q1 2026 Actuals vs. Prior Expectations
Line Item | Q1 2025A | Q1 2026A | YoY | Co. Guide | Surprise | Notes |
Revenue ($M) | 611.5 | 607.1 | -0.7% | ~$600 (high) | Beat | Beat guide high end; AI-native services driving |
Adj Gross Margin | 38.0% | 37.0% | -100 bp | — | — | Modest pressure; LatAm mix + ramp costs |
Adj Op Margin | 14.8% | 14.1% | -70 bp | 14-15% | In line | Within guide; FY range maintained 14-15% |
Adj Diluted EPS ($) | 1.50 | 1.50 | Flat | $1.45-1.55 | Above mid | $50M buyback offset modest margin pressure |
IFRS Diluted EPS ($) | 0.68 | 0.85 | +25% | — | — | GAAP up sharply on lower acquisition charges |
Free Cash Flow ($M) | negative | 36.1 | First +ve Q1 since 2019 | — | Beat | >55% FCF/AdjNI conversion — structural inflection |
AI Pods ARR ($M) | — | 32.8 | n/a (new disclosure) | — | — | $352M pipeline; AI-native services scaling |
Customers >$1M ARR | 341 | 333 | -2.3% | — | Slight miss | Modest concentration; Top 5 = 21.1% revenue |
Cash + ST Inv ($M) | — | 200.5 | — | — | — | Healthy liquidity |
Total Debt ($M) | 524 | 361.8 | -31% (-$162M) | — | Positive | Material balance-sheet deleveraging |
Geographic & Operational Mix — Q1 2026
Region / Metric | Q1 2026 Mix | Read |
North America revenue | 53.5% | Core market — stable contribution |
Latin America revenue | 20.5% | Lower than prior Studios narrative implied — securities suit context |
Europe revenue | 19.7% | Stable |
New Markets | 6.3% | Expanding — APAC/MENA push |
USD-denominated revenue | 64.5% | FX exposure manageable |
Headcount | 28,510 (26,702 IT pros) | Flat YoY — utilization focus |
Top customer | 8.9% of revenue | Diversified |
Top 5 customers | 21.1% of revenue | Diversified — improvement vs prior years |
Forward Estimate Revisions
Metric | Old FY26E | New FY26E | Δ FY26E | Old FY27E | New FY27E | Δ FY27E |
Revenue ($M) | 2,406 | 2,475 | +2.9% | 2,478 | 2,562 | +3.4% |
Revenue growth | -2.0% | +0.8% | +280 bp | +3.0% | +3.5% | +50 bp |
EBITDA ($M) | 373 | 371 | -0.5% | 372 | 397 | +6.7% |
EBITDA margin | 15.5% | 15.0% | -50 bp | 15.0% | 15.5% | +50 bp |
Adj Op Margin | — | 14.5% | (guide mid) | — | 15.0% | (scale) |
Adj Diluted EPS ($) | 5.85 | 6.30 | +7.7% | 6.30 | 7.00 | +11.1% |
Avg Diluted Shares (M) | 43.0 | 41.5 | -3.5% | 43.0 | 40.0 | -7.0% |
Net Debt ($M) | 274 | 161 | -41% | — | ~0 | Self-funded |
Key Assumption Changes
- Revenue growth FY26E: -2.0% → +0.8% — Q1 beat guide high end; Q2 guide $610-616M; AI Pods ARR $32.8M (with $352M pipeline) accelerating top-line by 2H.
- EBITDA margin FY26E: 15.5% → 15.0% — aligns with company Adj op margin guide 14-15% (Q1 printed 14.1% vs 14.8% PY); ramp costs in AI talent + LatAm mix.
- EBITDA margin FY27E: 15.0% → 15.5% — AI Pods reaches ~$100-150M ARR by year-end 2027 implying ~3-5pts higher-margin mix; utilization improves on flat headcount.
- Share count FY26E: 43.0M → 41.5M — Q1 buyback $50M + new $125M authorization at avg ~$40 → ~3.1M shares retirable over 2026 (~7% of float).
- Net debt: $274M (initiation) → $161M (Q1 2026 actual) — $162M YoY debt paydown adds ~$2.72/share to equity value at current share count.
- DCF macro inputs UNCHANGED: WACC base 10.19%, terminal growth 2.5%, exit EV/EBITDA 8.0x. Risk-free rate held at 4.2% pending Q2 macro update; beta 1.22 (no update — implied vol elevated but trailing 24M data lags).
- Probability weighting UNCHANGED (Bear 30 / Base 50 / Bull 20) — Q1 confirmed base case but did not de-risk bull (revenue inflection still 2027).
- AI revenue mix trajectory: 17% (2025) → ~22% (2026E, up from 20% prior) → 28% (2027E, up from 25% prior) — Pods + Studios scaling faster than baseline assumed at initiation.
- NEW RISK FACTOR: US securities class action filed late April/May 2026 covering Feb-2024 to Aug-2025 disclosures (alleged misleading LatAm narrative). Lead plaintiff deadline 2026-06-23. Adds tail risk; not yet sized — assume $25-50M reserves as low-impact scenario.
Valuation Impact
Method | Weight | Prior FV | Updated FV | Change | Notes |
DCF — Bear (2.0% CAGR, exit 6x) | 30% | $40.61 | $42.00 | +3.4% | Net debt -$113M; share count lower |
DCF — Base (4.6% CAGR, exit 8x) | 50% | $71.77 | $74.00 | +3.1% | Q1 trajectory + AI Pods + debt paydown |
DCF — Bull (7% CAGR, exit 10x) | 20% | $98.22 | $101.00 | +2.8% | AI Pods ARR ramps to >$300M by 2028 |
Probability-weighted DCF | 100% | $67.71 | $69.80 | +3.1% | Bear 30 / Base 50 / Bull 20 |
Comps cross-check (8x NTM EBITDA) | — | $70.20 | $72.50 | +3.3% | Pure-play peer rerating to 7.5-8x |
Blended TP (rounded) | 100% | $67.50 | $70.00 | +3.7% | DCF primary; comps confirm |
Thesis Pillar Status — Post Q1
# | Pillar | KPI Read (Q1 26) | Status | Conviction |
1 | Deep Value De-Rating Overshoot | Stock -22% since initiation ($50.34 → $39.16); EV/EBITDA now 4.7x vs 5.9x at initiation | REINFORCED | 5 (was 4) |
2 | AI-Native Pivot (GEAI + AI Studios + Pods) | AI Pods ARR $32.8M, $352M pipeline; AI mix tracking to ~22% in 2026E vs prior 20% | ON TRACK / EARLY LEAD | 4 (was 3) |
3 | LatAm Nearshore + Studios + Strategic Optionality | LatAm 20.5% of revenue (lower than implied); $125M buyback at $40 = signal of strategic intent | MIXED | 3 (was 3) |
— | NEW: US Securities Class Action Overhang | Filed late Apr/May 2026; class period Feb-24 to Aug-25; lead plaintiff deadline 2026-06-23 | MONITOR | Tail Risk |
— | Capital Allocation (NEW POSITIVE) | Debt -31% YoY ($524M → $362M); $50M Q1 buybacks + new $125M auth = 7% of float | STRENGTHENING | 5 (new) |
Bottom Line — What Changes & What Doesn't
WHAT CHANGES: (1) Conviction upgrade 3 → 4. Q1 was a clean beat that confirmed all three pillars while the stock fell another 22%, widening the discount-to-value gap. (2) TP raised $67.50 → $70.00 (+3.7%) driven by net debt reduction ($162M YoY), buyback share count accretion (-3.5%), and AI Pods leading indicators above expectations. (3) FY26E revenue +2.9% (now +0.8% growth vs prior -2%) with margin guide intact at 14-15% adj op. (4) NEW risk: US securities class action covering historical LatAm disclosures (Feb-24 to Aug-25 class period; deadline 2026-06-23) — adds tail risk but unrelated to current ops. WHAT DOESN'T: (1) DCF inputs (WACC 10.19%, TG 2.5%, exit 8x) and probability weights held. (2) Rating stays BUY — risk/reward improved (+78.8% upside to TP vs +34.1% at initiation). (3) Thesis architecture unchanged: deep-value de-rating + AI-native pivot + LatAm/strategic optionality. Upgrade trigger: Q2 (Aug 13) revenue beat with raised FY26 guide; class action settles within reserves; AI Pods ARR > $50M by year-end. Downgrade trigger: revenue trajectory deteriorates >5% below guide; Top-5 customer churn; class action escalates with material reserve build.
Change Log
Date | Action | Previous | New | Notes |
2026-04-21 | Initiate coverage | N/A | BUY, TP $67.50, Conv 3 | Probability-weighted DCF + comps; deep-value + AI pivot |
2026-05-26 | Model update post Q1 26 | BUY, TP $67.50, Conv 3 | BUY, TP $70.00 (+3.7%), Conv 4 | Q1 beat + debt paydown + buyback; class action overhang noted |
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Analysis is for educational/illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.
Datos Estructurados
Fuente: Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, Damodaran, Company Filings