AgenticFinanceChileCCU Compañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A.
3-Statement Model
Integrated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow projections with 3Y historical + 5Y forecast.
FY2025 Revenue
$3M
FY2025 Net Income
117,152
Revenue CAGR
6.5%
Projection Years
8
CCU — Model Update | Post Q1 2026
Compañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A. (BCS: CCU) | 2026-05-26
Rating: MAINTAIN HOLD | Target: CLP 6,950 | Prior: CLP 7,100 (-2.1%) | Upside: +27.6% (CLP 5,449) |
Update Trigger & Summary
CCU reported Q1 2026 on 2026-05-07. Headline missed Street expectations: net sales CLP 819.5B (+0.2% YoY), EBITDA flat at CLP 131.6B (+0.1%), and net income -6.8%. The result is bifurcated — Chile beat strongly (EBITDA +13.7%, margin 20.0% / +173bp) while International (-18.6% EBITDA, restructuring) and Wine (-50.1% EBITDA, -508bp margin) deteriorated further than our initiation assumed. We cut FY26E revenue -1.9% on softer top-line (Argentina FX, wine), but EBITDA only -1.2% as Chile margin lift offsets. FY27E EBITDA -3.3%. New TP CLP 6,950 (-2.1%) — MAINTAIN HOLD; conviction 3.0 → 2.5 as Wine outlook structurally worsens and Argentina restructuring extends. Stock has fallen 16% since initiation (CLP 6,500 → 5,449), expanding upside to +27.6% but the segment mix risk justifies waiting for Q2 evidence of Argentina stabilization before upgrading.
Q1 2026 Actuals vs. Prior Estimates
Line Item | Q1 2025A | Q1 2026A | YoY | Q1 2026E | Surprise | Notes |
Revenue (CLP M) | 817,670 | 819,515 | +0.2% | ~869,000 | -5.7% | Vol +1.8%, price -1.5% on weak Argentina |
EBITDA (CLP M) | 131,512 | 131,644 | +0.1% | ~149,000 | -11.6% | Flat consolidated; Chile offset by Intl/Wine |
EBITDA margin | 16.1% | 16.1% | 0 bp | 17.1% | -100 bp | Wine collapse drags consolidated margin |
Gross margin | — | — | +55 bp | — | — | Lower direct costs + Chile efficiencies |
Net income (CLP M) | ~52,030 | ~48,490 | -6.8% | ~55,000 | -11.8% | Higher Argentina FX losses + restructuring |
Volumes (consolidated) | — | — | +1.8% | — | — | Chile +3.9%, Intl -1.7%, Wine -5.9% |
Segment Performance — Bifurcated Quarter
Segment | Revenue YoY | EBITDA YoY | EBITDA Margin | vs. Initiation Thesis |
Chile | +3.9% (vol +3.9%) | +13.7% | 20.0% (+173bp) | BEATING — pricing/mix + cost efficiencies |
International (Argentina) | -6.7% (px -5.1%) | -18.6% (-10.4% ex-restruct) | Gross -218bp | WORSE — ARS -28.7%; restructuring extends |
Wine | -7.2% (vol -5.9%) | -50.1% | -508 bp | MUCH WORSE — global wine demand collapse |
Forward Estimate Revisions
Metric | Old FY26E | New FY26E | Δ FY26E | Old FY27E | New FY27E | Δ FY27E |
Revenue (CLP M) | 3,026,010 | 2,967,820 | -1.9% | 3,177,310 | 3,071,690 | -3.3% |
Revenue growth | +4.0% | +2.5% | -150 bp | +5.0% | +3.5% | -150 bp |
EBITDA (CLP M) | 402,540 | 397,690 | -1.2% | 435,290 | 420,820 | -3.3% |
EBITDA margin | 13.3% | 13.4% | +10 bp | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0 bp |
Net income (CLP M) | 140,580 | 135,930 | -3.3% | 158,650 | 152,940 | -3.6% |
EPS (CLP) | 380.5 | 367.9 | -3.3% | 429.4 | 414.0 | -3.6% |
Key Assumption Changes
- Revenue growth FY26E: 4.0% → 2.5% — Argentina peso depreciated 28.7% in Q1 keeping pricing under pressure; wine volumes -5.9% with no near-term catalyst.
- Chile EBITDA margin FY26E: 16.5% → 17.0% — Q1 delivered 20.0% (+173bp); non-alcoholic mix lift + cost efficiencies appear structural, not one-off.
- International EBITDA growth FY26E: -8% → -15% — restructuring costs extending; CFO declined to commit to specific recovery quarter beyond 'easier comps from Q2'.
- Wine EBITDA margin FY26E: 10.2% → 7.5% — Q1 collapsed to -508bp; global wine demand decline persists; management explicitly does not see 'extraordinary recovery'.
- FY27E recovery shape: International segment recovers on lapping (mid-teens EBITDA growth) but Wine remains depressed at ~8% margin — structural challenge, not cyclical.
- DCF inputs essentially unchanged — WACC 7.7%, terminal growth 3.0%, exit EV/EBITDA 7.0x; lower FCF base drives -2.1% TP cut.
- Share count unchanged at 369.5M (no buyback announced in Q1 call).
- Dividend policy: 35 consecutive years; CFO reaffirmed but no special dividend signaled despite stock weakness.
Valuation Impact
Method | Weight | Prior FV | Updated FV | Change | Notes |
DCF (base case) | 60% | CLP 7,150 | CLP 7,030 | -1.7% | Lower FCF base; WACC/TG unchanged |
EV/EBITDA (7.0x NTM) | 40% | CLP 7,030 | CLP 6,830 | -2.8% | NTM EBITDA -1.6%; net debt unchanged |
Blended TP | 100% | CLP 7,100 | CLP 6,950 | -2.1% | Weighted avg, rounded to nearest 50 |
DCF — Bear (5Y CAGR 2.0%, exit 5.5x) | — | CLP 5,350 | CLP 5,150 | -3.7% | Wine -50% recurring; Arg never stabilizes |
DCF — Bull (5Y CAGR 5.5%, exit 8.0x) | — | CLP 9,150 | CLP 8,950 | -2.2% | Chile margin holds 19%+; Arg fully recovers FY27 |
Thesis Pillar Status — Post Q1
# | Pillar | KPI | Q1 Read | Status | Conviction |
1 | Chile Franchise | Chile EBITDA margin | 20.0% (+173bp) | BEATING | High |
2 | Multi-Category Diversification | Chile rev growth | +3.9% (NAB HSD) | On Track | High |
3 | Premiumization Tailwind | Premium beer % volume | Trending to 30% by 28 | On Track | Medium-High |
4 | Argentina Headwind | Arg beer vol + ARS/CLP | Vol -1.7%, ARS -28.7% | At Risk | Low |
5 | Wine Structural Challenge | Wine EBITDA margin | -508 bp; EBITDA -50.1% | Worsening | Low (cut from Med) |
Bottom Line — What Changes & What Doesn't
WHAT CHANGES: (1) Wine is no longer 'stabilizing at ~10% margin' — Q1 -508bp and management offered no recovery framework. Pillar 5 conviction cut from Medium-Low to Low; we now treat wine as a structurally declining 8% margin business, not 10%. (2) Argentina restructuring cost extends FY26E intl EBITDA decline. (3) TP cut CLP 150 (-2.1%) to CLP 6,950. WHAT DOESN'T: (1) Chile is the franchise — 20% EBITDA margin in Q1 beats our 16.5% assumption and validates Pillars 1-3. (2) DCF inputs (WACC 7.7%, TG 3.0%, exit 7.0x) unchanged. (3) Dividend policy intact. (4) Rating stays HOLD: even with 27.6% upside to TP, segment mix risk + zero forward guidance from management warrant patience. Upgrade trigger: Q2 print showing Argentina volumes inflecting positive AND wine margin stabilizing ≥8%.
Change Log
Date | Action | Previous | New | Notes |
2026-04-14 | Initiate coverage | N/A | HOLD, TP CLP 7,100 | Chile dominance offset by Intl/Wine |
2026-05-26 | Model update post Q1 26 | HOLD, TP 7,100 | HOLD, TP 6,950 (-2.1%) | Wine cut; Chile beat; conviction 3.0 → 2.5 |
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Analysis is for educational/illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.
Datos Estructurados
Fuente: Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR, Damodaran, Company Filings