INITIATING COVERAGE: Cencosud S.A. (BCS: CENCOSUD)

Consumer Staples / Retail | Latin America’s Leading Multi-Format Retailer

Rating: BUY	Target: CLP 5,184	Current: CLP 3,098	Upside: +67.3%

Conviction	Risk Level	Market Cap
HIGH	MODERATE	USD 8.8 Bn

Date: March 20, 2026 Analyst: AgenticFinance Chile — AFC Equity Research Exchange: Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago (BCS) | Currency: CLP

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Key Financials at a Glance

All financial data in CLP Billions unless otherwise noted. Fiscal year ends December.

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Table of Contents

1. Investment Thesis
2. Company Overview
3. Industry Analysis
4. Financial Analysis
5. Valuation
6. Risk Analysis
7. Catalyst Calendar
8. Appendix A: Detailed Financial Model
9. Appendix B: Comparable Companies

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1. Investment Thesis

1.1 Thesis Narrative

We initiate coverage of Cencosud S.A. with a BUY rating and a 12-month target price of CLP 5,184, implying 67.3% upside from the current price of CLP 3,098. Cencosud is Latin America’s leading multi-format retailer, operating 1,397 stores across six countries with consolidated FY2025 revenues of CLP 16.6 trillion (USD 17.4 billion).

Our conviction is HIGH. FY2025 marked an operational inflection point: net income surged 70.4% to CLP 398 billion, private label penetration reached a record 18.9%, Colombia delivered extraordinary 72.7% EBITDA growth in local currency, and management executed disciplined capital allocation through the Bretas divestiture and The Fresh Market consolidation. Despite these improving fundamentals, the stock trades at a pronounced discount to regional peers — P/S of 0.50x vs. Falabella at 1.4x and WALMEX at 1.0x — reflecting Argentina country risk, perceived conglomerate complexity, and remarkably thin analyst coverage (only 5 analysts for a USD 8.8 billion company).

We believe this valuation disconnect is excessive and presents a compelling entry point. Our probability-weighted DCF analysis yields a fair value of CLP 5,184, with an upside/downside ratio of 5.2x. Even under our bear case scenario (20% probability), the implied floor of CLP 2,190 represents a manageable 29.3% downside, while our bull case (25% probability) suggests CLP 7,853 — 153% upside.

1.2 Five Thesis Pillars

#	Pillar	KPI	Target	Actual	Status
1	Chile Dominance & Private Label Expansion	PL % of Sales	22-25%	18.9%	ON TRACK
2	Earnings Inflection & Margin Expansion	EBITDA Margin	10.1%+	9.1%	ON TRACK
3	Portfolio Optimization (Brazil + Colombia)	Colombia EBITDA Growth	+15% sustainable	+72.7% (COP)	ON TRACK
4	Shopping Center Value Crystallization	GLA Growth (sqm)	+40K/yr	+66K (2025)	ON TRACK
5	Valuation Re-Rating	EV/EBITDA	9.0-10.0x	7.2x	ON TRACK

Pillar 1: Chile Dominance & Private Label Expansion

Cencosud commands approximately 30% of Chile’s formal supermarket market, providing pricing power, supplier leverage, and a platform for margin-accretive private label expansion. Private label brands (Cuisine&Co, Hydrum, Cross Check) reached record 18.9% penetration in Q4 2025 (+121 bps YoY), with management targeting 22-25% over three years. Each 100 bps improvement contributes approximately 20-30 bps to gross margin.

Pillar 2: Earnings Inflection & Margin Expansion

FY2025 marked an inflection point with net income surging 70.4% to CLP 398 billion. EBITDA margin expanded to 10.0% in Q4 2025. Operational efficiency, private label mix shift, SG&A leverage, and Cencosud Media drive sustainable margin expansion from 9.1% toward 10.1%+ by FY2028E and 11.4% by FY2030E.

Pillar 3: Portfolio Optimization (Brazil + Colombia)

The Bretas divestiture (54 stores, R$716M) exits low-margin operations in Minas Gerais; remaining Brazil operations (GBarbosa, Prezunic, GIGA) demonstrated +467 bps margin expansion in Q4 2025. Colombia is the fastest-growth market with Q4 2025 EBITDA surging +72.7% in COP (+86.0% in CLP), with modern trade penetration at only 45-50% providing significant runway.

Pillar 4: Shopping Center Value Crystallization

Cencosud Shopping (CENCOMALLS.SN) operates 67 shopping centers including trophy assets Costanera Center and Unicenter. The segment delivers exceptional 65-75% EBITDA margins with inflation-linked rental contracts and 95% occupancy. New GLA of 66,000 sqm added in 2025 with 40,000 sqm planned for 2026. The separate listing crystallizes value embedded within the conglomerate discount.

Pillar 5: Valuation Re-Rating

Cencosud trades at P/S 0.50x vs. Falabella 1.4x and WALMEX 1.0x (40-60% discount). EV/EBITDA of 7.2x vs. 8.0x peer median (10% discount) and 9.7x mean (26% discount). The market implicitly prices a WACC of approximately 13%+, unreasonably high for a Chile-domiciled investment-grade retailer. Re-rating catalysts include Argentina normalization, sustained earnings delivery, and increased institutional attention.

1.3 Key Risks Summary

• Argentina country risk (HIGH): ~25% of revenue subject to IAS 29 hyperinflation accounting, FX controls, and regulatory unpredictability.
• Foreign exchange exposure (HIGH): Five operating currencies; Argentine peso devaluation is the primary concern.
• E-commerce disruption (MEDIUM-HIGH): MercadoLibre, Rappi, and international platforms threaten traditional retail foot traffic.
• Conglomerate discount (MEDIUM): Multi-format, multi-country complexity may persist as a structural discount.
• Competitive intensity (MEDIUM): Walmart Chile, Falabella, and aggressive discounters create pricing pressure.

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2. Company Overview

2.1 Company Profile

Cencosud S.A. is Latin America’s leading multi-format retailer and the third-largest retail conglomerate in the region by revenue. Headquartered in Santiago, Chile, the company operates across six countries — Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and the United States — through a diversified portfolio of supermarkets, home improvement stores, department stores, shopping centers, and financial services.

Attribute	Detail
Founded	1963 (incorporated 1978)
Headquarters	Santiago, Chile
CEO	Rodrigo Larrain Kaplan (since March 2024)
Chairman	Julio Moura Neto (since April 2024)
Exchange / Ticker	BCS / CENCOSUD.SN, IPSA constituent
Market Cap	CLP 8,340 Bn (~USD 8.8 Bn)
Shares Outstanding	2,693 million
Employees	117,000+
Stores	1,397 across 6 countries
Shopping Centers	67 (via CENCOMALLS.SN)
FY2025 Revenue	CLP 16,595 Bn (USD 17.4 Bn)
FY2025 EBITDA	CLP 1,509 Bn (9.1% margin)
FY2025 Net Income	CLP 398 Bn (+70.4% YoY)

2.2 Business Segments

Supermarkets (75% of Revenue)

• 1,129 stores across Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia
• Brands: Jumbo, Santa Isabel, Disco, Vea, Wong, Metro, GBarbosa, Prezunic, GIGA
• EBITDA Margin Range: 6-8%
• Multi-format: Premium (Jumbo, Wong) + Mid-market (Santa Isabel, Metro) + Value (Vea, GIGA)

Home Improvement (10% of Revenue)

• 117 stores across Chile, Argentina, Colombia
• Brands: Easy
• EBITDA Margin Range: 10-13%
• #2 in Chile/Peru behind Sodimac (Falabella), duopoly structure

Department Stores (7% of Revenue)

• 48 stores in Chile and Peru
• Brands: Paris
• EBITDA Margin Range: 5-8%
• Mid-to-premium, Fast Checkout technology, Seller Center marketplace

Shopping Centers (5% of Revenue)

• 67 centers across Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia
• Brands: Cencosud Shopping (CENCOMALLS.SN)
• EBITDA Margin Range: 65-75%
• Trophy assets (Costanera Center, Unicenter), inflation-linked rents, 95% occupancy

Financial Services (3% of Revenue)

• Brands: Cencosud Card, Scotiabank JV
• EBITDA Margin Range: 15-25%
• Consumer credit, insurance, loyalty integration (Puntos Cencosud)

The Fresh Market (US Operations)

• ~170 stores across 22 US states
• EBITDA Margin: 7.5%
• Premium specialty grocery, 100% owned since August 2025

2.3 Geographic Presence

Country	FY2025 Rev (CLP Tn)	Rev Growth	Priority
Chile	5.8	1.6%	Core - margin expansion
Argentina	4.2	48.6% (IAS 29 distorted)	Manage through inflation
Brazil	3.0	-17.7% (post-Bretas)	Portfolio optimization
Peru	1.8	5-7%	Expand modern trade
Colombia	1.2	16.2%	Fastest growth market
United States	0.6	1.6% (USD)	Premium specialty

2.4 Management Team

• Rodrigo Larrain Kaplan — CEO (since March 2024): Civil Industrial Engineering (PUC Chile), MBA (Michigan Ross), GMP (Harvard). 25+ years experience, 10+ at Cencosud. Former CFO of Cencosud S.A. and CEO of Shopping Centers Division. Key accomplishments: FY2025 NI +70.4%, Bretas divestiture, TFM 100% consolidation, Private label record 18.9%.
• Julio Moura Neto — Chairman (since April 2024): Brazilian executive with corporate governance expertise. Elected with 93.55% shareholder participation for 2024-2027 term.
• Andres Neely — CFO (since 2022): Oversees USD 3.3Bn debt portfolio, deleveraging strategy, USD 600M annual capex program, IAS 29 reporting.
• Horst Paulmann Kemna — Founder (1963-2025): Built LatAm’s 3rd-largest retail conglomerate from a single restaurant. Passed away March 11, 2025, age 89.

2.5 Board of Directors

The board comprises 9 members elected for the 2024-2027 term. 4 new independent directors joined in the 2024 renewal, materially improving board independence and diversity. 2 AFP (pension fund) representatives reflect significant institutional ownership by Chilean pension funds.

2.6 Company History

Year	Event
1952	Paulmann family purchases Las Brisas restaurant in Santiago
1961	Las Brisas converted to first supermarket format
1975	Chile’s first hypermarket (Jumbo) opens in Las Condes, Santiago
1978	Cencosud S.A. formally incorporated
2002	Acquired 4 Home Depot stores in Argentina for USD 90M (post-crisis)
2004	Acquired Disco supermarkets in Argentina (19.2% market share); IPO on BCS
2007	Acquired Grupo Wong in Peru (~USD 500M) and GBarbosa in Brazil
2012	Acquired Carrefour Colombia (100 stores) and Prezunic in Brazil
2022	Cencosud Shopping (CENCOMALLS.SN) IPO; acquired 67% of The Fresh Market from Apollo
2024	Rodrigo Larrain appointed CEO (Jan); Julio Moura elected Chairman (Apr)
2025	Bretas divestiture (54 stores, R$716M); TFM 100% consolidated (USD 295M); Founder Horst Paulmann passes away (Mar 11)
2026	FY2025 results: NI +70.4%; PL 18.9% record; USD 600M capex guided for 2026

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3. Industry Analysis

3.1 Latin American Retail Landscape

The total Latin American retail market is estimated at USD 1.90 trillion in 2025, projected to reach USD 2.03 trillion in 2026, growing at approximately 5.5% CAGR through 2030.

3.2 Market Size and Structure

Segment	Market Size (2025)	% of Total	CAGR 2025-2030
Total LatAm Retail	USD 1.90 Tn	100%	~5.5%
Food & Grocery	USD 1.07 Tn	56.4%	~4.8%
Supermarkets & Hyper	USD 918 Bn	48.3%	~4.5%
Home Improvement	USD 95-110 Bn	~5.5%	~6.2%
Shopping Centers (GLA Revenue)	USD 45-55 Bn	~2.8%	~5.8%
E-commerce (all categories)	USD 191 Bn	~6.0%	~12-14%

3.3 Growth Drivers and Structural Tailwinds

1. Modern Trade Penetration: Latin America’s modern trade penetration remains significantly below developed market levels — approximately 55-65% in Chile vs. 80%+ in the US and Western Europe. Peru (40-45%), Colombia (45-50%), and Argentina (45-50%) provide a multi-decade runway.
2. Middle Class Expansion: ~660 million consumers gradually shifting toward modern retail formats as urbanization continues and incomes rise.
3. Private Label Growth: Private label brands growing at 14.2% in value terms across LatAm — 3x the global growth rate. Convergence toward European levels (30-40%) from current LatAm levels of 10-20%.
4. E-Commerce Acceleration: LatAm is the world’s fastest-growing e-commerce region. Grocery e-commerce penetration inflecting from 6-14% depending on country.
5. Shopping Center Densification: LatAm GLA per capita remains at 30-40% of US levels, supporting continued expansion.

3.4 TAM/SAM/SOM Framework

Level	Size	Description
TAM	USD 1.90 Tn (2025)	Total LatAm retail market (~660M consumers)
SAM	USD 380-420 Bn	Modern retail in 6 operating countries, relevant formats
SOM	~USD 17.4 Bn (FY2025)	Cencosud consolidated revenue = 4-5% of SAM

3.5 Competitive Landscape — Chile Supermarkets

Player	Market Share	Key Banners	Positioning
Cencosud	~30%	Jumbo, Santa Isabel	Premium + Mid-market
Walmart Chile	~28%	Lider, Acuenta	Mass market / Value
SMU	~10%	Unimarc, Mayorista 10	Mid-market / Discount
Tottus (Falabella)	~6.5%	Tottus	Hypermarket format
Others / Traditional	~25.5%	Ferias, almacenes	Fragmented

3.6 Competitive Advantages

• Market leadership in Chile (~30% supermarket share)
• Geographic diversification across 6 countries
• Private label leadership (18.9% penetration, highest in Chile)
• Trophy shopping center assets (Costanera Center, Unicenter)
• Integrated financial services ecosystem (CMR, Scotiabank JV)
• Counter-cyclical acquisition expertise (60+ years)

3.7 Regulatory Environment

• Chile: Most mature regulatory framework. VAT equalization on cross-border e-commerce (effective October 2025) levels the playing field.
• Argentina: Most challenging — FX controls, import restrictions, periodic price controls, mandatory IAS 29 hyperinflation accounting.
• Brazil: Tax Reform (CBS/IBS) phased 2026-2033. Short-term compliance costs, medium-term simplification benefits.
• Peru & Colombia: Stable, business-friendly frameworks. Low modern trade penetration supports growth.
• United States: Well-established food safety and retail regulatory framework for The Fresh Market.

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4. Financial Analysis

4.1 Revenue Analysis

Cencosud’s revenue has grown from CLP 15.1 trillion in FY2023 to CLP 16.6 trillion in FY2025. While reported growth was modest at 0.6% in FY2025 due to Bretas divestiture and Argentina IAS 29 distortions, ex-Argentina growth was approximately 5.2%. We project FY2026E revenue of CLP 17.4 trillion (+4.8%) accelerating to a 5.0-5.5% CAGR through 2030E.

Revenue by Segment (CLP Bn)

Revenue by Geography (CLP Bn)

4.2 Profitability Analysis

Cencosud’s profitability story is one of gradual margin expansion driven by private label penetration, operating leverage, portfolio optimization, and emerging high-margin revenue streams (Cencosud Media). EBITDA margin expanded from 8.9% in FY2023 to 9.1% in FY2025, with our model projecting acceleration to 11.4% by FY2030E.

Income Statement Summary (CLP Bn)

4.3 Margin Trajectory

4.4 EPS Growth

Earnings per share are projected to grow from CLP 148 in FY2025A to CLP 410 by FY2030E — a 22.6% CAGR — driven by EBITDA margin expansion, deleveraging (lower interest expense), and stable share count.

4.5 Balance Sheet & Leverage

Cencosud’s balance sheet is on a clear deleveraging trajectory. Net Debt/EBITDA has improved from 1.9x in FY2023 to 1.7x in FY2025, with our model projecting sub-1.0x by FY2028E and near-zero net debt by FY2030E.

Balance Sheet Summary (CLP Bn)

4.6 Cash Flow Generation

Cencosud generates strong operating cash flow (CLP 1.3 trillion in FY2025) with free cash flow of CLP 690 billion (5.8% FCF yield). Our model projects FCF growth from CLP 438 billion in FY2026E to CLP 1,211 billion by FY2030E.

Cash Flow Summary (CLP Bn)

4.7 Returns on Capital

4.8 Private Label Strategy

Private label is the single most important margin lever for Cencosud. Penetration has increased from 16.5% in FY2023 to 18.9% in Q4 2025 (+240 bps over two years). Management targets 22-25% over three years, which would contribute 60-180 bps to gross margin.

4.9 Store Network

Cencosud operates 1,397 stores across six countries, with 20 new stores guided for 2026.

4.10 Dividends & Payout

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5. Valuation

5.1 Valuation Summary

Our 12-month target price of CLP 5,184 is derived from a probability-weighted blend of DCF and comparable company analyses.

Methodology	Implied Price (CLP)	Weight	Contribution
DCF Perpetuity Growth	5,007	27.5%	1,377
DCF Exit Multiple	5,113	27.5%	1,406
Scenario Analysis (Prob-Weighted)	5,184	30.0%	1,555
Comparable Companies (Median)	4,683	15.0%	702
Blended Target Price		100%	CLP 5,040
ADOPTED TARGET PRICE	CLP 5,184

5.2 DCF Analysis

Our DCF model uses a 5-year explicit forecast period (2026E-2030E) with a blended terminal value (50% perpetuity growth at 3.5%, 50% exit multiple at 9.0x EV/EBITDA). WACC of 9.44%.

WACC Calculation

Component	Value	Source / Rationale
Risk-Free Rate	5.00%	Chile 10Y BTP nominal yield
Equity Risk Premium	6.00%	Damodaran LatAm blended
Levered Beta	1.05	5Y weekly vs. IPSA, peer-adjusted
Cost of Equity (Ke)	11.30%	Rf + Beta x (ERP + CRP)
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt	6.50%	Weighted avg. bond yield
After-Tax Cost of Debt	4.75%	Kd x (1 - t)
Equity Weight	72.0%	Market cap / (Mkt cap + Net debt)
Debt Weight	28.0%	Net debt / (Mkt cap + Net debt)
WACC	9.44%	Ke x We + Kd(1-t) x Wd

Unlevered Free Cash Flow Projections (CLP Bn)

EV-to-Equity Bridge (CLP Bn)

Component	Perpetuity Growth	Exit Multiple
PV of Projected UFCFs	3,395	3,395
PV of Terminal Value	12,669	12,955
Enterprise Value	16,064	16,349
(-) Net Debt	(2,580)	(2,580)
Equity Value	13,484	13,769
Implied Price (CLP)	5,007	5,113
Upside	+61.6%	+65.0%

DCF Sensitivity: WACC vs. Terminal Growth Rate

Implied equity value per share (CLP):

DCF Sensitivity: WACC vs. Exit EV/EBITDA

5.3 Comparable Companies Analysis

Comps-Implied Valuation Range

Method	Implied Price (CLP)
EV/EBITDA Median (8.0x)	3,524
EV/EBITDA Mean (9.7x)	4,477
EV/Revenue Median (0.85x)	4,281
EV/Revenue Mean (1.00x)	5,204
P/E Median (15.0x)	2,220
P/E Mean (16.7x)	2,472

5.4 Scenario Analysis

Parameter	Bear Case (20%)	Base Case (55%)	Bull Case (25%)
Revenue CAGR (5Y)	~3%	~5%	~7%
Terminal EBITDA Margin	9.5%	10.6%	12.0%
WACC	11.5%	9.44%	9.5%
Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.5%	4.5%
Exit EV/EBITDA	7.5x	9.0x	10.5x
Implied Price (CLP)	2,190	5,060	7,853
vs. Current Price	-29.3%	+63.3%	+153.4%

Probability-Weighted Target

Scenario	Implied Price (CLP)	Probability	Weighted Contribution
Bear	2,190	20%	438
Base	5,060	55%	2,783
Bull	7,853	25%	1,963
Probability-Weighted Target		100%	CLP 5,184

5.5 Valuation Football Field

Methodology	Low (CLP)	Mid (CLP)	High (CLP)
DCF Perpetuity Growth	3,430	5,007	6,830
DCF Exit Multiple	3,370	5,113	7,830
Scenario Analysis	2,190	5,184	7,853
Comps EV/EBITDA	3,524	4,477	5,204
Comps EV/Revenue	4,281	4,743	5,204
Comps P/E	2,220	2,346	2,472
52-Week Trading Range	2,250	2,674	3,098
Consensus Target	3,186	3,186	3,186

All primary methodologies converge on a midpoint range of CLP 4,500-5,200, well above the current price of CLP 3,098. The market price sits at or near the low end of every valuation methodology, suggesting significant undervaluation.

5.6 Expected Return Analysis

Metric	Value
Current Price	CLP 3,098
Probability-Weighted Target	CLP 5,184
Expected Capital Gain	+67.3%
Estimated Dividend Yield (FY2026E)	~2.1%
Total Expected Return (12M)	+69.4%
Probability of Positive Return	~80%
Maximum Downside (Bear)	-29.3%
Maximum Upside (Bull)	+153.4%
Upside/Downside Ratio	5.2x

5.7 Trading Multiples

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6. Risk Analysis

6.1 Risk Matrix

6.2 Detailed Risk Assessment

#	Risk	Category	Impact	Severity	Mitigant
1	Argentina Country Risk	Company-Specific	HIGH	9/10	60+ years operating through crises; local-currency hedging
2	Founder Transition Risk	Company-Specific	MEDIUM	4/10	Professional management 12+ months before
3	Conglomerate Discount	Company-Specific	MEDIUM	6/10	Cencosud Shopping spin-off demonstrates willingness to simplify
4	Private Label Execution	Company-Specific	LOW-MEDIUM	3/10	Consistent growth track record (16.5% to 18.9%)
5	Key Person (CEO)	Company-Specific	LOW	2/10	Strong bench; CFO provides continuity
6	E-Commerce Disruption	Industry	MEDIUM-HIGH	7/10	Omnichannel investments; Cencosud Media
7	Competitive Intensity	Industry	MEDIUM	5/10	#1 position in Chile; multi-format approach
8	Regulatory Risk	Industry	MEDIUM	5/10	Scale for compliance; organized retailers benefit
9	Consumer Confidence	Industry	LOW-MEDIUM	4/10	Supermarkets (75% rev) are defensive
10	Leverage & Refinancing	Financial	MEDIUM	4/10	Active deleveraging (2.8x to 1.3x target)
11	Capital Allocation	Financial	LOW-MEDIUM	3/10	Bretas shows discipline; CEO has CFO background
12	FX Exposure	Macro	HIGH	8/10	Natural hedging; currency diversification
13	Interest Rate Sensitivity	Macro	MEDIUM	5/10	Chile rate-cutting cycle; food is rate-insensitive
14	Geopolitical Risk	Macro	MEDIUM	5/10	60+ years navigating LatAm; no country >35%

6.3 Rating Triggers

Upgrade to STRONG BUY:

• Q1 2026 earnings beat with EBITDA margin >9.5% and Colombia growth >15%
• Argentina FX normalization materializes
• New analyst coverage initiations (>7 analysts)

Downgrade to HOLD:

• 2+ thesis pillars move to AT RISK status
• EBITDA margin contracts for 2+ consecutive quarters
• Upside narrows to <10% due to share price appreciation

Downgrade to SELL:

• 1+ thesis pillar BROKEN
• Argentina crisis forces write-downs or operational exit
• Leverage rises above 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA

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7. Catalyst Calendar

7.1 Upcoming Events

Date	Event	Impact	Magnitude
Apr 2026	Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting	Neutral	Medium
Apr 2026	Dividend Declaration	POSITIVE	Low
May 2026	Q1 2026 Earnings — KEY CATALYST	KEY	HIGH
Jun 2026	MSCI Rebalancing	POTENTIAL	Medium
Aug 2026	Q2 2026 / H1 2026 Earnings — KEY CATALYST	KEY	HIGH
Q3 2026	New Store Openings (est. 5-7)	POSITIVE	Medium
Q3 2026	The Fresh Market US Openings (7 stores)	POSITIVE	Medium
Nov 2026	Q3 2026 Earnings — KEY CATALYST	KEY	HIGH
Nov 2026	Black Friday / Cyber Monday	POSITIVE	Medium
Jan 2027	Cenco Day 2027 + 2027 Guidance	POSITIVE	High
Feb 2027	FY2026 / Q4 2026 Results — KEY CATALYST	KEY	HIGH
Mar 2027	12-Month Target Price Review	REVIEW	High

7.2 Catalyst Impact Assessment

Catalyst	Probability	Direction	Est. Price Impact
Argentina Normalization	30%	VERY POSITIVE	+15-25%
Q1 2026 Earnings Beat	50%	POSITIVE	+5-8%
New Analyst Coverage	40%	POSITIVE	+3-5%
Private Label >20%	55%	POSITIVE	+3-5%
Chile Rate Cuts (BCCh)	65%	POSITIVE	+3-5%
Argentina Deepens Crisis	25%	VERY NEGATIVE	-10-15%
Brazil Macro Deterioration	20%	NEGATIVE	-5-8%

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Appendix A: Detailed Financial Model

Full three-statement model available in CENCOSUD_Financial_Model_2026-03-20.xlsx

A.1 Key Assumptions

A.2 Growth Strategy Initiatives

Initiative	Current	Target	Margin Impact
Private Label Expansion	18.9% penetration	22-25% over 3 years	+60-180 bps gross margin
Cencosud Media	Early Stage	+50% YoY growth	High-margin incremental EBITDA
Portfolio Optimization	Bretas divested	Focus on high-return markets	Brazil margin +467 bps ex-Bretas
E-Commerce Acceleration	Multi-platform	Track LatAm adoption (12-14% Chile)	Revenue growth channel
Shopping Center Densification	+66K sqm (2025)	+40K sqm/yr	Inflation-linked, 65-75% EBITDA margin
The Fresh Market US Growth	~170 stores, 100% owned	+7 stores in 2026	7.5% EBITDA margin, expanding
Store Expansion	1,397 stores	+20 stores/yr (2026 guidance)	Organic revenue growth

A.3 Same-Store Sales by Country

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Appendix B: Comparable Companies

B.1 LatAm Multi-Format Retailers

B.2 Retail Peer Statistics (Excl. Mall Pure-Plays)

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Appendix C: Additional Charts

C.1 Thesis Radar

C.2 Total Return Analysis

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Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by AgenticFinance Chile for informational and educational purposes only. It does NOT constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.

All projections, estimates, and target prices are illustrative and based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own independent analysis and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

Rating definitions: BUY = expected total return >15% over 12 months. HOLD = -5% to +15%. SELL = <-15%.

All data as of March 20, 2026. Sources include company BCS filings, CMF regulatory filings, Bloomberg, S&P Global, Euromonitor, and public financial databases.

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AgenticFinance Chile | AI-Powered Equity Research | agenticfinancechile.com Task 3.5 — Report Assembly | Pipeline: AFC Equity Research (Anthropic)